COVID-19 vaccines saved the first 20 million lives in their first year, but deaths could have been prevented if the international goals of the shooting had been met, researchers said Thursday.
On December 8, 2020, a retired store clerk in England received the first picture of what would become a global vaccination campaign. In the next 12 months, more than 4.3 billion people worldwide are on target.
“Tragedy could be the first word that comes to mind,” Watson said of the result if there were no anti-coronavirus vaccines. Researchers used data from 185 countries to estimate that vaccines prevented 4.2 million deaths in COVID-19 in India, 1.9 million in the United States, 1 million in Brazil, 631,000 in France, and 507,000 in the United Kingdom.
An additional 600,000 deaths would have been prevented if the World Health Organization’s target of 40% by the end of 2021 had been reached, according to a study published Thursday in the journal Lancet Infectious Diseases.
The main findings – 19.8 million deaths of COVID-19 were prevented – based on the estimated number of deaths than usual. Using only the reported COVID-19 deaths, the same model reported 14.4 million vaccinated deaths.
Scientists in London have released China out of uncertainty over the epidemic’s impact on the deaths and a large number of people.
Research has some limitations. The researchers did not speculate that the virus may have evolved differently if there had been no vaccines. And they did not consider how the locks or masks could be changed without the goals.
Another group of models used a different approach to estimate that 16.3 million people killed by COVID-19 were vaccinated by vaccines. That work, done by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle, has not yet been published.
In the real world, people often wear masks when cases increase, says Ali Mokdad of the center, and the 2021 delta wave without vaccination would have created a major policy response.
“We may not agree on numbers as scientists, but we all agree that COVID’s policies have saved many lives,” Mokdad said.
The findings underscore both the successes and failures of the vaccine campaign, said Adam Finn of Bristol Medical School in England, who, like Mokdad, was not included in the study.
“While we have done very well in this – saving millions and millions of people – we would have done better and should do better in the future,” Finn said.
Funding came from several groups including the WHO; UK Medical Research Council; Gavi, Vaccine Alliance; and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.